OneWater反射
2023年11月7日
澳大利亚洪水风险综合管理研究
作者:Roozbeh - nafari
-
保存到收藏夹与你的朋友分享
-
2023年水文与水资源研讨会(HWRS 2023), 11月13日- 15日, brings together water resource practitioners in Australia to discuss the complexities related to the occurrence of more frequent extreme weather events as climate change intensifies.
露西戈斯, 雅各布斯水资源工程师和水文学家, 要发表一篇论文吗, “When zero does not equal zero: the need to transition from flood hazard management to a comprehensive flood risk mitigation approach”, 她和我以及雅各布斯高级水资源工程师本杰明·罗伯逊共同撰写了这份报告.
我们在澳大利亚面临的最昂贵的自然灾害之一是洪水. 随着海平面的上升和降雨的加剧, 罕见洪水事件的严重程度, 以及洪水灾害的经济后果, 预计会增长. 这使得寻找有效的方法来弹性地减轻洪水风险比以往任何时候都更加重要. 目前, Australian urban development relies heavily on structural hazard mitigation measures like levees and drainage infrastructure to manage natural hazards. 然而, these measures aren't foolproof and combatting a hazard that never presents itself in the same way twice can catch communities off guard if a hazard presents itself unexpectedly.
虽然在短期内是必要和有效的, 结构性措施只是拼图中的一块. 考虑到未来强度的不确定性, 复杂性, 或者特大自然灾害的发生频率, 采取更全面的办法来减轻风险至关重要.
因此, 我们必须采取更全面的办法，把经济效益结合起来, 社会和管理调整, 既节约成本，又促进可持续强劲发展. 例如, 我们可以投资社区教育, 土地使用规划, 保险和公众演习加强社区对自然灾害的准备.
虽然澳大利亚已经采取了一些非结构性措施来应对洪水风险, 比如早期预警系统(EWS)和教育活动, 我们还可以做得更多. 例如, 我们可以投资于IT和人工智能应用程序，这些应用程序可以产生风险警报并进行大规模管理, 实时数据. 有了更好的系统, 我们可以提高预测的可靠性, 创建一个实时的风险管理系统, promote collaboration between disaster management agencies and communicate information with the public to enhance response efficiency. 此外, it’s imperative to educate communities about the current limitations of EWS and the evolving dynamics of floods caused by climate change. 重要的是不要根据过去的经验来假设安全.
提高我们抵御洪水风险的能力，减少社会对各种威胁的脆弱性, 优先考虑社区教育是至关重要的, 意识和准备. We can also invest further in proactive 土地利用规划 based on climate change adaptation policy and legislation to minimize exposure to future flood risks. 通过采纳这些非结构性措施, we can pave the path to a more resilient future and promote 可持续发展 in response to the challenges posed by climate change.
总之, 一个着眼于脆弱性缓解的整体减灾计划, 土地利用规划, preparedness training and investment in technology will be essential if we are to mitigate the impact of natural disasters and mega-disasters on our communities in the future. Let's work together to improve our capacity for adaptation in Australia and address the growing challenges posed by increasingly severe natural disasters.
作者简介
Roozbeh H-Nafari is a principal hydrologist and flood modeler at 正规博彩十大网站排名 and a Fellow of Engineers Australia with expertise in diverse industries, 包括洪水风险管理, 可持续发展, 和“气候变化” & 弹性"研究项目. He has held prominent leadership roles for several large-scale transport infrastructure projects in the industry. He has managed and delivered multidisciplinary engineering works and major infrastructure projects from tender proposals to final completion in Australia and overseas. Roozbeh's doctoral research on "Flood Damage Assessment in Urban Areas" at the University of Melbourne resulted in a method for flood risk mitigation in Australia, 对科学和工程实践有很大贡献的. This method provided input data for subsequent flood damage reduction and vulnerability mitigation while prioritizing flood risk mitigation projects, 成本效益分析和土地利用规划.